Where Are the Popular Kids Now?

The Mideast coverage is dropping out of the top 10 lists at the Times, as was probably inevitable. The story is multifaceted, difficult, and above all uncertain. There is a probably a principle of diminishing returns in what readers get out of ongoing coverage of even the big stories, and maybe even an emotional reaction of "enough!"

When I noticed this decline in popularity of the Mideast story last night, I wondered whether newspaper audiences were the same all over the country. I was surprised that they are all distinct: It was worse inland from the coasts.

With a broad brush, I'll draw several very tentative conclusions. I'll give you the more detailed comparison down at the end of this post. They're fascinating.

• The New York Times, and the LA Times, are the only ones whose readers kept any Mideast stories in the top 10, not even the Washington Post has any.
  
  
• The readers of the Times favor more of a daily magazine, with more columns and more analytical pieces in the top 10, but a magazine with a Yuppie cast.
  
  
• The New York Times readers don't bother much with New York stories. In fact, I found the Long Island attempted murder story I wrote about earlier this morning in the Washington Post most-popular lists.
  
  
• Some of the smaller papers in between the coasts are like another kind of magazine in that their readers gravitate towards celebrities and sports topics much more.
  
  

Much of this might be expected, but my survey lacks a clear idea how the different publication do their tabulations. I don't have enough information to make sense out of any one paper's lists. I don't know what information they track and how they count it.

Without knowing the relative sizes, say of the number 1 story to the number 10, they are meaningless in terms of an internal comparison. Without the absolute numbers, there is no explaining why some stories seem to stick on the list for days and others come and go.

As far as the methodology, there are different ways to collect clicks and to count them. It looks like the Times collects detailed information, but there are many subtleties.

But interpretation is still difficult. For example, what happens if I start a story at one time and go back to it later? Under what circumstance does that count twice? What happens if I walk away with a Times page on my browser and don't return until after work? Does it imply that I read the story thoroughly and pondered it, or that I walked away with a shrug?

For one thing, the most-emailed list is worthless to me. I suppose the idea is that a story emailed from one reader to another has a special value. But the data are far too biased to have any meaning at all.

The Times has an "email this story" button, but there's no need to use it. It clutters up the email I send to friends so I use the browser function to email the link. If you don't use the Times's button, the Times's logs won't show it as emailed. And finally, no matter what level your technical sophistication, the Times has no clue about your motivation. Maybe the staticians tell the news executives those are inconsequential and will average out -- just the way the Wall Street quants knew the housing market would fall into the chasm that it did.

There's another important issue: Does popularity determine the play of the stories? Different papers say different things. I was thinking that this might be the time for me to get on the phone and ask them, but I that the Times did a good story itself in September on this issue.

The fact is that stories move around all over the front of the web page all day long. Stories appear on the web often hours before the print version is laid out. Does popularity matter?

I think we could answer that with a long-term statistical study of the most-popular lists and the play of the stories, but it would require a long time because we don't know the details of the lists. But if you read the story from September, the answer is clear that they do -- somewhat.

Read the Times's executive editor, Bill Keller: "The New York Times does not use Web metrics to determine how articles are presented, but it does use them to make strategic decisions about its online report," according to the story.

Keller is quoted thusly: "We don't let metrics dictate our assignments and play, because we believe readers come to us for our judgment, not the judgment of the crowd. We're not 'American Idol.' "

Then the story says, "Mr. Keller added that the paper would, for example, use the data to determine which blogs to expand, eliminate or tweak."

I agree 1,000 percent, to borrow a quote from the 1972 presidential campaign. It's carefully worded. The metrics don't dictate, they influence. That's how I read it. It could be a politician talking about his wealthy contributors. I think these lists and the way it looks like the news is following such audience surveys can destroy the news and turn it all into the smiley banter of early morning TV.

I just hope they're god-damn careful about how they interpret the metrics. The consequences could be very bad for them, those people on the Times payroll, and for us.

Here is a most informal comparison done yesterday evening:

The New York Times:

1. Live Blogging the iPad 2 Announcement
   
2. Thomas L. Friedman: This Is Just the Start
   
3. Justices Rule for Protesters at Military Funerals
   
4. A Good Appetite: Once a Villain, Coconut Oil Charms the Health Food World
   
5. Op-Ed Contributor: Why Your Boss Is Wrong About You
   
6. Basics: Natalie Portman, Oscar Winner, Was Also a Precocious Scientist
   
7. Can Exercise Keep You Young?
   
8. Go Easy on Yourself, a New Wave of Research Urges
   
9. Jobs Returns to Introduce a New iPad
   
10. Rebels in Libya Win Battle but Fail to Loosen Qaddafi’s Grip
    

The LA Times

1. FDA orders 500 cough and cold drugs off the market
   
2. Senate approves stopgap funding measure
   
3. Yemen leader reportedly reaches tentative pact with opposition
   
4. Rights group takes a step-by-step approach on gay marriage
   
5. Lakers seeking payback against the dreaded Bobcats
   
6. Wisconsin recall efforts spread to Senate Republicans
   
7. California's Indian casinos slowly recovering from recession
   
8. Serena Williams has pulmonary embolism and 'unexpected scare'
   
9. With stopgap funding bill passed, budget sparring resumes
   
10. Serena Williams suffers pulmonary embolism
    

The Washington Post

1. Obama signs short-term spending bill, averting federal shutdown
   
2. Lt. Gen. John Kelly, who lost son to war, says U.S. largely unaware of sacrifice
   
3. Supreme Court rules First Amendment protects church's right to picket funerals
   
4. NY police: Gunman intended to commit mass murder
   
5. Obama's 'Where's Waldo?' presidency
   
6. iPad 2 specs announced by Steve Jobs today at Apple event
   
7. Charlie Sheen's Twitter following grows; actor reacts to losing custody of twin sons
   
8. Five myths about Ronald Reagan
   
9. The TV Column: Charlie Sheen keeps talking; CBS gets in on the conversation
   
10. Midwest union battles highlight debate over improving schools
    
    

The Miami Herald

1. Miami Heat finally conceding that Big 3 is not enough
   
2. Miami Hurricanes walk-ons are ‘heart and soul’ of team
   
3. After Kirby Hocutt’s departure from UM, only questions remain
   
4. Miami Police officer under arrest for alleged fraud involving non-profit education group
   
5. Miami Heat’s Dwyane Wade adjusts to lesser role late in games
   

The Dallas Morning News

1. Christina Aguilera
   
2. Charlie Sheen
   
3. Kamala Harris
   
4. Serena Williams
   
5. Ralph Macchio
   
6. iPad 2
   
7. Christina Hendricks
   
8. John Galliano
   
9. Bristol Palin
   
10. Josh Holloway
    

The Chicago Tribune

1. Live sex toy demonstration held on NU campus
   
2. Flee Partyers seem right at home behind Illinois' Jell-O Curtain (it's a column about the Wisconsin Democrats hiding out in Illinois)
   
3. More minorities moving to suburbs
   
4. Steve Jobs emerges from medical leave to unveil iPad 2
   
5. Serena Williams at home recuperating after pulmonary embolism, hematoma